I was just coaching one of my players, and he (politely) disagreed about an interesting pre-flop hand. The question fundamentally came down to: How strong are 4x open-raises? We both agreed that guys raising to 4x aren’t looking to see a flop. But whereas I thought the reason was a range of commonly hands like {AQ, AK, 88-TT}, he thought it was because the player was looking to steal, potentially with a marginal hand like A2 or QJ.
Here was the hand that started the discussion.
And my questions are:
What’s Villain’s range?
Does a shove have fold equity?
What hands would you shove there?
Stats for villain?
Yes you have FE.
In this particular situation I’d be hard pressed to reshove so wide mainly because the raiser as well as both blinds have 25xBB+. When a large stack raises bigger than normal into other large stacks, it usually means he has a decent hand and he doesn’t want to get involved in a pot with the other big stacks.
Commonly that 4x raise is quite indicative of a weak hand, at least a hand weak enough to fold to shoves…but I don’t think this is one of those situations.
Since these are my bread and butter I figured I would chime in.
What’s Villain’s range?
His range is fairly wide here. I do not perceive him to be strong but rather raising more to try to get the big stacks in the blinds to fold with a hand he does not want to play post-flop.
Does a shove have fold equity?
You always have fold Equity.
What hands would you shove there?
My range here with two big stacks to act after me is going to be pretty tight. Id say 88+ AQ, AK and maybe Aj suited.
I think you are missing a question though. It seems like this tournament is pretty much on the bubble. Does the tournament being so close to the Ft tighten the villians range?
They were on the final table
Yes it is the final table. While I’m still not wild about the A9 shove, it looks like I was equating the 4x raise with a much tighter range than I should have!
Any dissenters who think 4x is strong?
The shove isn’t about having the best hand, a big part of it (imho) comes from the fact that you can fold out an over-active villain a decent portion of the time.
If villain had been 2.5x all the way through and now suddenly chose to 4x, I might think better of it, but if he is routinely opening for 4x it’s more likely I would try to get him to fold.
We are also last in chips here, so it isn’t like we are 2nd in chips clashing with the chip leader if we are wrong…
I agree with Simon…
Judging if 4x is strong or weak depends on previous pf raising patterns of the villain.
I apologize seen 6 people and 1/2k blinds and assumed it was the bubble. Got down to 6 pretty quickly then!
My thinking here is basically everything Simon and Serac said.. Personally the only way I shove the A9o in this spot is if I’ve seen villain use this exact bet size recently.
But I disagree with the student as far as 4x typically being a hand trying to steal. It’s def a possibility, but I tend to see this more as a premium pair that a player immediately wants to begin getting value for, or AQ, AK, 77-TT, where they’d be fine taking it down right there or calling a shove, but def not wanting to get flatted.
this hand is soley dependent on prior events…..
There can be no one correct answer to the question: How strong are 4x open-raises?
It is situational. What are stacks, players still in, position, players stats making the raise, what has been their standard line for preflop open raises in that position and others?
Most important is the player making the raise rather than the size of the raise. Secondly will be what their raise has been so far followed by what position they are in and their M & Q. The really big one is what part of the game is it and what are the stakes? It’s not so simple to give everyone the same range based on open raise 4x.
Generally, a 4x open can be wide and would either be defining their hand to get rid of weak draws or seeking info or both. I think they are not afraid of seeing a flop and have a chemistry hand if called. It can be any pp , Ax, SC, Overs like KQx, K9s+. It can be a stealing hand too.
Here, the parameters are final table, decent stakes/payout, presumably the best players in the game made it here so it’s not an early stage donkey trying to get lucky. Every play and move has a reason behind it. If the player is TAG/LAG making 4x open at end stage high blind like this from late position, it is going to be the max range IMO to steal. But will have a draw. So my answer in this one is the full range mentioned above and add in suited gappers. His M isn’t in trouble and he can afford some 4x steals to keep the pressure on.
HOWEVER! If they are a thinker they are going to be looking at if any short stacks are yet to act, and will not 4x unless witling to call a reshove. This will narrow their range about 1/2 but still using SC’s but generally upper 1/4 of them say JTs or KQs+. Something they will race a shortie with. In this hand, there is no “shortie” per se even though less than half their stack, hero still has fold equity. So the range will be the wider range IMO.
In other games or in the middle of an MTT they will be narrower as well for the TAG but not necessarily for the LAG. For Tpas or Lpas the range will be tighter than top half.
Now hero should be reshoving here at final from this position in this situation. They should be looking to get into a flip or better race to double up. Sitting and waiting for premium at this stage with that stack is death. By the time they do catch a hand and get it in, they have lost a lot of equity so they get called wider but also, even if they double, it only gets them back to where they are now. Stealing back here is +EV in this situation. But in other spots, it would be a bad reraise shove to flip when not needed. Look for better edge when there is the luxury of time and against some players you have a bead on, you know to get out or know to shove when it’s crunch time like it is here. Tpas and TAG it may be better to fold to the 4x at the final table rather than make it a GCT (Game Critical Intersect.)
I don’t see how you have fold equity here at all. I think the point of the 4x raise here is that it prices him into call a shove from your stack. He raises from the cutoff, let assume that he’s raising a fairly wide range to steal the blinds, QJo+ K10o + K9s+ Q10s + 66+ in addition to all of the high quality non-premium hands, AQo, 99-TT (possibly JJ). After the initial raise the pot is 12500, and you are shoving for 26000, 18k more to him making the total pot 38500. He’s getting 77:36 or over 2:1 on a call. He’s the chip leader, and will have about your stack size if he loses, so he will still have a decent shot to come back and double up in the event that he loses.
I mean you have a dangerously low M, and probably can’t hold out for more than 3 more blind rounds without shoving, but this doesn’t seem like the spot to do it. At the very best your probably around 57% to double up, with no fold equity. I don’t see how this is the proper play versus someone that isn’t raising ATC, with 2 people left to act.
a) Without stats/reads I rather expect to see PPs below TT here.
Btw @John: I don’t expect a 4x-guy to be that much of a twisted minded thinker entering this hand with any kind of a plan.
b) Rarely, since this is a Knockout and ppl tend to go crazy over the bounties. He is also getting really nice odds.
c) {AK,AQ+,99}
Bottom Line:
Yes, Hero is last in chips. But he is sitting on 13x, which is IMHO a big enough stack to not get involved on behalf of a read, which is speculative at best. Hero can wait for a spot, when he either gets his chips in better or first.
The range is pretty wide but with the 4x he’s telling the small stack if you shove I’m calling.
The 4x def prices him in to a call of the short stack shove, but allows him to get away if the big stack shoves. Not much fold equity.
What hands am I shoving there, is a good question, its really a matter of how i think i stack up against the rest of the table, he still has some play with 13bbs. I think the A9 beats most of the villains range but I would prob look for a better spot, or at least a spot with more fold equity. I’m pretty sure he’s getting called here.
What’s Villain’s range?
really annoying about this issue is this:
Tough we have gazillions of hands, nobody seems to be able to pull the answer to questions like this out of our databases.
4X raise does not seem as strong in light of the ante’s which make it effectively just a hair under a 3X BB raise.
Typically a raise like this is a pretty decent hand that wants to play but villain realizes they are too deep to shove optimally and comes in for a standard raise.
Normally my restealing range starts around AQ and 88 here. I think that the original villain hand range you posted is pretty accurate. For A9 to be well enough ahead of villains raising range you are having to put villain on way too many week hands for this to be a profitable resteal.
Seems like the student may be justifying a bad play after the fact? IMO this is too aggressive.
Personally I think it is not going to be that fruitful putting a ton of analysis into this. I think it is completely player dependent and most of the time I will just think a second and fold. If he’s been 4xing a lot and his stats are like 35/26 I’m shoving all day, but I guess thats a given.
I don’t think the 4x always leans towards strength but more to the middle of their range plus some air, and I don’t think good players should or do use it often. But I don’t think they’re folding either. Its just really hard to say what they have here without being at the table.
77+ AJ+ shoving imo.
Of course you have some FE. sometimes a 4x raise is just one more click of the mouse away, and villains don’t think much further than that.
I’d guess you don’t have much FE, but that you are ahead of his range. I make this shove if I’m having a tough time beating up the table. If I’m winning hands easily enough I would probably pass here. Really, I’d write in a forum or comment that its a fold, but I’d probably push here in game.
I haven’t seen any obvious difference between a 3x bet and a 4x bet. There are times where it causes more suspicion than others, but I never know if it means weakness or strength.